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文 | 原牧楠 蒙田

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9月开启的好意思联储降息既给各人经济带来了机遇，也注入了更多的不细则性。本期专题斟酌好意思元降息周期下的天下经济走向。本篇报说念从货币政策角度探索好意思联储降息对各人主要国度的影响。

好意思联储大开降息大门，大宗国度先于或紧跟好意思联储开启降息周期，英国、日本等国基于本国经济表情的考量，弃取暂时不雅望的气魄，俄罗斯、巴西在通胀压力下弃取逆势而行。

The US Federal Reserve opened the door to interest rate cut, and most countries started the interest rate cut cycle before or after the US Federal Reserve. The United Kingdom, Japan and other countries chose to wait and see for the time being based on their own economic situation, while Russia and Brazil chose to go against the trend under inflationary pressure.

当地时期9月18日，好意思联储晓谕联邦基金利率的打算区间从5.25%-5.50%降至4.75%-5.0%，降幅50个基点。好意思元的迥殊地位决定了好意思联储的货币政策将影响各人其他国度央行的货币政策的弃取。列国央行严慎弃取货币政策，在戒指通胀、促进经济增长和维系金融稳重之间寻找均衡。

On September 18, local time, the Federal Reserve announced that the target range of the federal funds rate was reduced from 5.25%-5.50% to 4.75%-5.0%, a reduction of 50 basis points. The special status of the dollar determines that the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve will affect the monetary policy choices of other central banks around the world. Central banks choose monetary policy carefully, striking a balance between controlling inflation, promoting economic growth and maintaining financial stability.

好意思联储为列国央行大开降息空间

在本轮降息周期驱动前，好意思联储自2022年抓续激进加息，加之新冠疫情和地缘政事突破等要素带来的负面影响，各人经济际遇重要冲击，一些国度的央行迫于无奈，只可弃取紧跟好意思联储的看成被动加息，承受着更猛历程的经济压力。

Before the start of this rate cut cycle, the Federal Reserve continued to aggressively raise interest rates since 2022, coupled with the negative impact of the new coronavirus epidemic and geopolitical conflicts and other factors, the global economy suffered a major impact, and some central banks were forced to choose to follow the pace of the Federal Reserve forced to raise interest rates, under greater economic pressure.

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好意思联储这次开启降息周期，无疑是为列国央行大开了货币政策宽松的空间，央行不错弃取更多天真实货币政策用具，交流本国经济。

The Federal Reserve opened the interest rate cut cycle, undoubtedly for the central banks to open the monetary policy easing space, the central banks can choose more flexible monetary policy tools, adjust the national economy.

（数据开头：列国央行官网）

（制图：蒙田 原牧楠）

事实上，多国央行已先于好意思国公布降息决议。本年上半年，瑞士央行巧合公布降息决定，打响了加息周期的降息第一枪，瑞典银行紧随后来。

In fact, many central banks have announced interest rate cuts before the United States. In the first half of this year, the Swiss National Bank unexpectedly announced its decision to cut interest rates, firing the first shot of the interest rate hike cycle, followed by the Swedish bank.

9月以来，好意思国通胀数据和闲逸率的公布使各人商场形成好意思联储降息的广阔预期。一些经济体央行觉得好意思联储降息是行将要发生的事情，先于好意思联储降息可能会导致本币快速贬值的担忧被弱化，降息的时机依然驾临。举例，9月4日，加拿大央行晓谕将基准利率即隔夜拆借利率下调25个基点。9月12日，欧洲央行公布利率决议，将要害入款利率下调25个基点。

Since September, the release of US inflation data and unemployment rate has made the global market form a general expectation of the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates. Some central banks believe that the Fed's rate cut is something that will happen soon, and the fear that cutting interest rates before the Fed may lead to rapid depreciation of the currency has been weakened, and the time to cut interest rates has come. For example,on September 4th, the Bank of Canada announced that it would cut its benchmark interest rate, the overnight lending rate, by 25 basis points. On September 12, the European Central Bank announced an interest rate resolution, cutting the key deposit rate by 25 basis points.

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相对质据经济体而言，新兴经济体的货币政策体现出对好意思联储较强的依赖性。东南亚国度在好意思联储公布降息决议之后，纷繁下调本国要害利率。

Compared with advanced economies, the monetary policy of emerging economies reflects a strong dependence on the Federal Reserve. Southeast Asian countries cut their key interest rates after the US Federal Reserve announced its decision to cut interest rates.

关于这一表象，复旦发展斟酌院缓助孙立坚觉得，新兴商场国度的经济基础相对薄弱，在好意思元主导的外洋交易和货币体系下对好意思国的依赖历程较高，为了保证老本流动的稳重，这些经济体在弃取货币政策时，需尽可能地与好意思联储货币政策的力度、时机、标的保抓一致。而一些证据经济体在货币政策的弃取上具有较强的寥寂性，受好意思元影响相对较小，因而不错凭证本国经济表情先于好意思联储降息。

For this phenomenon, Sun Lijian，professor of the Fudan Development Institute believes that the economic foundation of emerging market countries is relatively weak, and the degree of dependence on the United States under the international trade and monetary system dominated by the US dollar is relatively high. In order to ensure the stability of capital flow, these economies need to choose monetary policies as much as possible with the strength, timing and direction of the Federal Reserve monetary policy. Some developed economies have strong independence in the choice of monetary policy and are relatively less affected by the dollar, so they can cut interest rates before the Fed according to their own economic situation.

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关于中国而言，此前中国东说念主民银行已屡次小幅缩短存贷款利率以及入款准备金率，向商场注入流动性。而出于稳重汇率的考量，中国东说念主民银行持久弃取较小的降息幅度。这一担忧在好意思联储降息后得以废除，降息带来的东说念主民币贬值压力削弱，中国东说念主民银行货币政策天真调养的空间被大开。

For China, the People's Bank of China has repeatedly lowered deposit and lending rates and the reserve requirement ratio to inject liquidity into the market. For the sake of stabilizing the exchange rate, the People's Bank of China has always chosen a smaller rate cut. This worry was dispelled after the US Federal Reserve cut interest rates, which weakened the depreciation pressure on the RMB and opened the space for the flexible adjustment of the monetary policy of the People's Bank of China.

中国东说念主民银行晓谕，自2024年9月27日起，下调金融机构入款准备金率0.5个百分点（不含已扩充5%入款准备金率的金融机构），公开商场7天期逆回购操作利率由此前的1.70%调养为1.50%。

The People's Bank of China announced that as of September 27, 2024, it will reduce the deposit reserve ratio of financial institutions by 0.5 percentage points (excluding financial institutions that have implemented the 5% deposit reserve ratio), and the open market 7-day reverse repurchase operation interest rate will be adjusted to 1.50% from the previous 1.70%.

中国东说念主民银行行长潘功胜在国新办新闻发布会上答记者问上明确暗示：“东说念主民银行坚抓支柱性的货币政策态度，加大货币政策调控的强度，提高货币政策调控的精确性，咱们哄骗了多种货币政策用具的组合，支柱实体经济的稳重增长。”

"The People's Bank of China has adhered to a supportive monetary policy stance, increased the intensity of monetary policy regulation, and improved the precision of monetary policy regulation. We have used a combination of various monetary policy tools to support the stable growth of the real economy," said Pan Gongsheng, governor of the People's Bank of China, at a press conference of The State Council.

各人央行政策分化

在好意思国插足货币宽松周期之后，尽管很多国度弃取侍从政策，但有部分国度作念出了不同举动。英国央行和日本央行与好意思联储在归并周召开了利率会议，两家央行却并未侍从好意思联储颁布降息决议，晓谕将保抓利率不变。

The Bank of England and the Bank of Japan all held meetings in the same week as the Fed, did not follow the Fed in announcing that they would keep rates unchanged.

英国央行行长贝利晓谕利率决议时公开暗示：“经济的发展与咱们的预期大体一致。如果这种情况抓续下去，咱们应该约略跟着时期的推移渐渐缩短利率。但保抓低通胀至关遑急，因此咱们需要退缩降息太快或太多。”

Announcing the interest rate decision, Governor Bailey said: "The economy is evolving broadly in line with our expectations. If this continues, we should be able to gradually lower interest rates over time. But keeping inflation low is crucial, so we need to guard against cutting rates too fast or too much."

日本在本年度已两次晓谕加息，该决议主若是从拦阻本国通货彭胀的角度斟酌的。本年3月，日本收尾了长达数年的负利率政策，在7月将短期利率上调至0.25%。日本央行但愿通过渐渐加息来推动本国货币政策的平方化，提高货币政策的天真性，在出现经济波动时能争取更大的操作空间。

Japan has already raised interest rates twice this year, largely to curb its own inflation. Japan ended a years-long policy of negative interest rates in March and raised short-term rates to 0.25% in July. The Bank of Japan hopes to normalize its monetary policy by gradually raising interest rates, increasing the flexibility of monetary policy and giving it more room to operate in case of economic fluctuations.

与大大宗国度央行不同，在这次降息潮中，俄罗斯央行和巴西央行弃取逆势而行。9月13日，俄罗斯央行晓谕，加息100个基点，将基准利率上调至19.00%，商场预估为18.00%。俄罗斯央行暗示，当今通胀压力依然较大，需要进一步收紧货币政策，有可能鄙人次会议上提高要害利率。俄罗斯央行此前已屡次大幅加息，曾在7月份的会议上加息200个基点。

Unlike most central banks, the central banks of Russia and Brazil have bucked the trend.On September 13, the Central Bank of Russia announced that it raised the benchmark interest rate by 100 basis points to 19.00%, compared with the market estimate of 18.00%. The Bank of Russia said inflation pressures remained high and further monetary tightening was needed, with the possibility of raising the key interest rate at its next meeting. The central bank has raised interest rates sharply several times.

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复旦求是学院副院长赵昌运对此讲明称，由于要为俄乌干戈提供东说念主力和物质，俄罗斯经济越来越难以振作家庭对商品和服务的需求,导致物价飙升。是以俄罗斯决定链接保抓加息政策，以此羁系国内通货彭胀，并增值本国货币，以便在外洋商场上霸占战术物质。

Zhao Changyun, deputy dean of Qiushi College in Fudan University, explained that the Russian economy is increasingly struggling to meet households' demand for goods and services as it supplies manpower and supplies for President Vladimir Putin's war in Ukraine, causing prices to soar. Therefore, Russia decided to continue the policy of raising interest rates in order to curb domestic inflation and appreciate its currency in order to seize strategic materials in the international market.

巴西央行则是好意思联储政策转向后最快反馈的央行之一, 飞速将基准利率上调25个基点至10.75%，其政策决定公布时期将仅忘形国有打算者会议收尾时期晚几个小时。

Brazil's central bank was one of the quickest to respond to the Fed's shift, quickly raising its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 10.75 per cent, and its decision will be announced just a few hours after the end of the meeting of US policymakers.

光大证券研报分析，巴西加息与政事要素有很大关联， 2023年1月卢拉就任巴西总统以来，扩充一系列经济财政纠正措施，扩大财政开销规模，以期达成经济纠正打算，扩张性的财政政策或进一步推动通胀压力上行。巴西央行当令加息，有助于稳重货币汇率，反抗因通胀形成的贬值压力。

Everbright Securities Research Report analysis, Brazil's interest rate rise has a lot to do with political factors, since Lula took office as president of Brazil in January 2023, the implementation of a series of economic and fiscal reform measures, expand the scale of fiscal expenditure, in order to achieve economic reform goals, expansionary fiscal policy or further promote inflation pressure upward. The central bank of Brazil raises interest rates in a timely manner, helping to stabilize the currency exchange rate and counter the depreciation pressure caused by inflation.

降息潮下，不细则性与机遇共存

好意思联储降息后，列国央行货币政策天真操作的空间进一步扩大。跟着一些经济体接踵降息，大宽绰地的货币政策已转向宽松。

After the US Federal Reserve cut interest rates, the room for central banks to operate monetary policy flexibly has been further expanded. Monetary policy has shifted to easing in many parts of the world as interest rates have been cut in several economies.

长江证券最新公布的研报觉得，好意思联储降息意味着好意思元流动性的增多，将暂缓好意思元老本回流好意思国，从而减缓其他国度的流动性压力。对各人其他经济体而言，在利差的作用下，好意思元老本可能会重新流入其他经济体，尤其是新兴商场国度。与此同期，好意思联储降息也为各人经济带来了不细则性，一些经济体在好意思联储降息后聘请相应措施，戒指本国货币汇率。短时期内货币政策发生诸多变动，将会加重各人货币商场的波动，增多各人经济的复杂性和不细则性。

According to the latest research report released by Yangtze Securities, the Fed's interest rate cut means an increase in dollar liquidity, which will delay the return of dollar capital to the United States, thereby slowing the liquidity pressure of other countries. For the rest of the world, interest-rate differentials could see dollar capital flowing back into other economies, especially emerging markets.At the same time, the Fed's interest rate cut has also brought uncertainty to the global economy, and some economies have taken corresponding measures to control their currencies after the Fed's interest rate cut. Many changes in monetary policy in a short period of time will exacerbate the volatility of the global currency market and increase the complexity and uncertainty of the global economy.

此外，好意思联储进一步降息预期浓烈，邻接的货币政策调养带来的不细则性将会进一步延迟至各人金融商场。当今好意思国服务增长放轻视闲逸率高涨等问题仍然莫得赢得压根处置。当地时期9月30日，鲍威尔暗示，如果经济数据保抓一致，本年可能会再降息两次，但幅度较小，为25个基点。

In addition, the Federal Reserve is expected to further cut interest rates, and the uncertainty brought about by successive monetary policy adjustments will further spread to the global financial market. At present, the problems of slowing job growth and rising unemployment in the United States have still not been fundamentally resolved. On September 30, local time, Powell said that if the economic data remain consistent, there may be two more interest rate cuts this year, but the amplitude is smaller, 25 basis points.

靠近好意思联储降息带来的各人经济不细则性，列国央行在调养货币政策时，齐在抽象斟酌国表里经济表情、本国通胀压力及闲逸率、汇率稳重等多个要素，在戒指通胀、促进经济增长和维系金融稳重之间寻找均衡，最大化保证本国经济环境的稳重性。

In the face of the global economic uncertainty brought about by the Fed's interest rate cut, central banks of all countries, when adjusting monetary policies, take into account the domestic and foreign economic situation, domestic inflation pressure and unemployment rate, exchange rate stability and other factors, in order to find a balance between controlling inflation, promoting economic growth and maintaining financial stability, and maximize the stability of their economic environment.

如日本央行行长植田和男暗示：“在制定政策有打算时，央行需要仔细评估国表里金融和老本商场的发展，以及这些发展背后的经济情景等要素。咱们有弥散的时期这么作念。”

As Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda said, "When making policy decisions, the central bank needs to carefully assess factors such as developments in financial and capital markets at home and abroad, as well as the economic conditions behind these developments.We have plenty of time to do that."

日本央行行长 植田和男

（图片开头：鸠集）