文|吕文敏 周芳妍

编者按：

9月开启的好意思联储降息既给寰球经济带来了机遇，也注入了更多的不笃定性。本期专题讨论好意思元降息周期下的宇宙经济走向。本篇报说念邀请诸位读者从数据启航，追溯历史降息周期，解读降息与金价之间的复杂谈判。

9月19日，好意思联储晓谕下调联邦基金利率，海外金价应声高涨。自9月好意思联储降息以来，金价不停攀升，屡次梗阻历史创下新高。死亡10月30日，金价已涨至2777.8好意思元/盎司，跨越历史最高水平。

On September 19th, the Federal Reserve announced a cut in the federal funds rate, prompting an immediate rise in international gold prices. Since the Federal Reserve's rate cut in September, the price of gold has continued to climb, even setting a new historical record. As of October 30th, the price of gold had surged to $2,777.8 per ounce, surpassing its historical peak.

黄金当作避险金钱，其改日的价钱走向一直是东说念主们样式的焦点。这次黄金的光线是好景不常，仍是新篇章的序曲？本文通过对历史数据的多维分析，揭示了金价走势的潜在规定。数据分析成果表露，历次好意思联储降息后金价在短期内呈高涨趋势，反馈好意思联储宽松货币战略对黄金商场的积极影响；从永恒来看，影响黄金价钱的身分特别复杂，包括地缘政事、供需谈判等。

Gold, as a safe-haven asset, its future price trend has always been the focus of attention. Is this glory of gold a flash in the pan or the prelude to a new chapter? Through multi-dimensional analysis of historical data in this article, the potential laws of the gold price trend are revealed. The results of data analysis show that the gold price has shown an upward trend in the short term after each interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, reflecting the positive impact of the Fed's loose monetary policy on the gold market. In the long term, the factors affecting the gold price are very complex, including geopolitics, supply and demand relations, etc.

1

复盘历史上好意思联储降息的金价施展

Reviewing Gold Price Performance During Historical Federal Reserve Rate Cuts

历史降息周期的黄金价钱走势（单元：好意思元/盎司）

（数据起首：好意思联储官方网站：www.federalreserve.govwww.federalreserve.gov，

宇宙黄金协会：www.gold.org；制图：谷河后生）

Historical Gold Price Trends During Interest Rate Reduction Cycles

(Unit: US Dollars per Ounce)

(Data source: Federal Reserve's official website: www.federalreserve.gov,

World Gold Council: www.gold.org; Chart by: Guhe)

当作资金价钱的风向标，战略利率的上下对金钱的涨跌起着关节作用。

As an indicator of the cost of capital, policy interest rates play a crucial role in the fluctuation of asset prices.

从历史角度来看，黄金当作非繁殖金钱在濒临好意思联储降息会有多半的反应阵势，即在经济不笃定性时候，尤其是当利率下跌且投资者寻求避险金钱时，黄金时常施展细致。

Historically, as a non-yielding asset, gold tends to follow a common reaction pattern when the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates. Specifically, during periods of economic uncertainty, particularly when interest rates fall and investors seek safe-haven assets, gold often performs well.

历史降息后不同时间周期下的金价施展

（数据起首：宇宙黄金协会：www.gold.org；制图：谷河后生）

Gold Price Performance at Different Time Periods

After Historical Interest Rate Reductions

(Data source: World Gold Council: www.gold.org; Chart by: Guhe)

短期看，与好意思元流动性增强相跟随的是黄金价钱先涨后降；中期看，好意思元流动性增强会权臣提拔黄金价钱高涨；永恒看，好意思元流动性增强对黄金价钱高涨的提拔效应呈不停下跌态势，黄金的永恒施展还需考量其他身分。

In the short term, enhanced dollar liquidity is accompanied by an initial rise in gold prices followed by a decline; in the medium term, increased dollar liquidity significantly supports rising gold prices; in the long term, the supporting effect of enhanced dollar liquidity on gold price increases diminishes over time.

2

降息预期波动，黄金商场多空交汇

The expectations of interest rate cuts fluctuate, the gold market is a mixture of bulls and bears

9月的好意思联储降息与新世纪以来前几轮降息大有不同，这次降息并非源于外部冲击，而是基于宏不雅经济情况的里面周期性调遣，是一种回首常态型的降息，即降息调遣后，好意思国经济的宏不雅施展将会直不雅影响到后续好意思联储的降息策动。

The interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September is different from the previous rounds of interest rate cuts since the new century. The rate cut is not from an external shock, but based on the internal cyclical adjustment of macroeconomic conditions, which is a return to normalcy type of interest rate cut. Specifically, after the adjustment of interest rate cuts, the macro performance of the US economy will directly affect the subsequent rate cut plan of the Federal Reserve .

历史降息周期中的三种降息类型

The Three Types of Interest Rate Cuts in Historical Cycles

不同降息类型下的黄金价钱施展

（数据起首：好意思联储官方网站：www.federalreserve.govwww.federalreserve.gov，

宇宙黄金协会：www.gold.org；制图：谷河后生）

The Performance of Gold Prices under Different Types of Interest Rate Cuts

(Data source: Federal Reserve's official website: www.federalreserve.gov,

World Gold Council: www.gold.org; Chart by: Guhe)

好意思联储主席鲍威尔强调，好意思国经济和服务情况基本上是健康的，并强调好意思联储正在“再行调遣”关节利率，而不是像进攻情况下那样速即降息。

Jerome Powell, the Chairman of the Federal Reserve, emphasized that the U.S. economy and employment are fundamentally healthy and stated that the Federal Reserve is "realigning" key interest rates rather than conducting rapid rate cuts as in emergency situations.

10月4日，数据表露，好意思国9月非农服务东说念主口增多了25.4万东说念主，远超预期的15万东说念主，舒服率回落至4.1%。新好意思联储通信社线路，9月非农论说可能关闭好意思联储11月降息50基点的大门。但花旗合计，9月非农数据可能受到季节性调遣的影响，改日服务数据将出现更急剧的向下修正，这将导致好意思联储在11月降息25个基点，然后在12月重回降息50个基点行列。

On October 4, data showed that U.S. nonfarm payrolls increased by 254,000 in September, far exceeding the expected increase of 150,000, and the unemployment rate fell back to 4.1%. The new Federal Reserve News Network indicated that the September non-farm payroll report might shut the door on a 50 basis point rate cut in November. However, Citigroup believes that the September non-farm payroll data might be affected by seasonal adjustments, and future employment figures could undergo a sharper downward revision. This may lead the Federal Reserve to cut rates by 25 basis points in November and return to a 50 basis point rate cut in December.

当今，各大金融机构关于好意思联储降息预期有较大不合，仍需要后续数据来提拔现存的不雅点。不错看到的是，好意思联储后续的降息战略关于黄金价钱的影响来说举足轻重，就当今趋势而言，不错说是多空各半。

Currently, there is a considerable divergence in rate-cut expectations among major financial institutions, and further data will be required to support existing views. What can be observed is that the Federal Reserve's subsequent rate-cutting policies will be crucial for gold prices. The current trend remains mixed.

3

央行执续购金，金价执续看涨

Central banks continue to purchase gold, which may lead to a sustained bullish outlook for the gold price

黄金当作一种贵金属，亦然一种什物商品，其价钱受到黄金供需的强弱影响。其中，央行购金行径对金价的影响相对较大。

Gold, as a precious metal and a physical commodity, has its price influenced by the strength of its supply and demand. Among these factors, central banks’ gold purchasing behaviors have a relatively significant impact on gold prices.

寰球央行净购金量对金价走势起着紧要提拔作用。数据标明，列国央行在创记录价钱下仍在增多黄金储备，在一定进度上初始黄金价钱高涨。宇宙黄金协会分析师戈保罗合计这是由于黄金当作价值储存时候的作用以及在危急时间的施展所致。“主权黄金积攒的执续趋势突显了东说念主们对黄金在投资组合中的作用的执续信心。”他总结说念。

The net gold purchases by global central banks play a crucial role in supporting the trend of gold prices. The data suggest that central banks are adding to their gold reserves despite record prices, partly driving the rally. World Gold Council analyst Paul Gopaul attributed this to gold's role as a store of value and its performance during the crisis. He concluded, “The continued trend in sovereign gold accumulation underscores the continued confidence in gold's role in a portfolio.”

2010年Q1-2024年Q2 黄金价钱与寰球央行购金的走势

（数据起首：宇宙黄金协会：www.gold.org；制图：谷河后生）

Gold Price and Global Central Bank Gold Purchases Trend

from Q1 2010 to Q2 2024

(Data source: World Gold Council: www.gold.org; Chart by: Guhe)

4

地缘冲突刺激避险情谊

Geopolitical Conflicts Stimulate Safe-haven Sentiment

2000年1月-2024年10月 黄金价钱（单元：好意思元/盎司）与紧要塞缘冲突线路图

（数据起首：宇宙黄金协会：www.gold.org，互联网公开数据；制图：谷河后生）

Illustrative Chart of Gold Prices (Unit: US Dollars per Ounce) and

Major Geopolitical Conflicts from January 2000 to October 2024

(Data source: World Gold Council: www.gold.org,

Public Data on the Internet; Chart by: Guhe)

追溯2000年来的屡次地缘摩擦，咱们发现大部分局部政事经济冲突齐会带动投资者犀利的避险需求，使得黄金需求取得普及，带来黄金价钱的脉冲式高涨。

Looking back at multiple geopolitical frictions since 2000, we find that most localized political and economic conflicts tend to trigger strong safe-haven demand among investors, boosting gold demand and leading to an impulsive rise in gold prices.

9月10日-10月30日 黄金的价钱走势图（单元：好意思元/盎司）

（数据起首：宇宙黄金协会：www.gold.org；制图：谷河后生）

From September 10th to October 30th, Gold Price Trend Chart

(Unit: US Dollars per Ounce)

(Data source: World Gold Council: www.gold.org;

Chart by: Guhe)

好意思联储降息后，黄金守住了短期关节提拔，也延续了多头的趋势。然而跟着中东姿色愈演愈烈，好意思国大选参加决胜阶段，海外避险情谊上升，黄金价钱在10月30日飙升至2777.8好意思元/盎司。

Following the Fed's interest rate cut, gold held its short-term key support level and continued its bullish trend. However, with escalating tensions in the Middle East and the U.S. election entering a decisive phase, international risk aversion has risen, causing gold prices to surge to $2,777.80 per ounce on October 30.

华安基金合计，跟着好意思联储降息周期的开启，商场预期好意思国本色利率将下行，这继续故意于黄金的施展。同期，在寰球“去好意思元化”趋势、地缘政事环境摇荡等多重身分的作用下，黄金刻下仍具有紧要的竖立价值。投资者仍需密切样式好意思联储后续战略动向以及寰球经济数据、政事环境，警惕黄金商场的波动风险。

HuaAn Funds believes that with the start of the Federal Reserve's interest rate reduction cycle, the market expects a downward trend in US real interest rates, which is usually beneficial for gold performance. Also, Under the influence of multiple factors such as the global "de-dollarization" trend and the volatile geopolitical environment, gold still has an important allocation value at present. Investors still need to closely monitor the subsequent policy trends of the Federal Reserve as well as global economic data and the political environment, and be vigilant of the volatility risks in the gold market.

数据起首：

[1] 宇宙银行数据库：data.worldbank.org.cn

[2] 好意思联储官方网站：www.federalreserve.gov

[3] 宇宙黄金协会：www.gold.org

[4] 好意思国联邦储备经济数据库：fred.stlouisfed.org

[5] 好意思国劳工统计局：www.bls.gov